Probability And Odds, Baby's Way

[lissalysikan]

Grim was reading a blog of someone he respects as a competent software engineer (which is amazing – Grim doesn't generally think anyone other than him is competent at anything) and found a little note about probability and statistics. He mentioned it to Baby. She decided to correct some misunderstandings and misuses of probability and statistics. (Baby is certain that being right is important to everyone so does quite a bit of explaining to help them be right. Even to trees, bugs, rabbits ...)

Probilidy iz broked. Cuz sinkin boud shances iz boud more n nummers iz boud peoples sinkin. Fer sample frowin a coin. A maffs iz ebber dimes frowed a coin iz half n half heads er dails. Bud if gess free heads inna row mose peoples specks tails goss bedder shance ness times cuz finks probilidy iz addin up. Sep a coin doan knowed was heads free dimes a row sos still goss fiffy fiffy shance. Same wif loddery tickeds. Juss cuz a nummers comed one times doan mean can comed gain cause a balls fer makin a nummers doan knowed was awready comed up bud peoples buyin tickeds sinks dey do sos plays diffrin nummers den a lass nummers es comed up. Das juss one kine a staked peoples maked en eben seed id in books. Nudder kine en gess in books lossa times iz a shances ub somefin happenin. Was a shance ub libbin finks eballbin on a erf? Hunnerd a sent. How comes a hunnerd a sent? Cuz id awready happened. Das nod a same es perdickdin libbin stuffs eballbin. Perdishin iz diffrin fum coundin. Fer sample gess ten cards wif a nummers on em en miss em up den laid em onna table. Now a odds ub em comin up in a order es on a table iz a hunnerd a sent cause id awready ezists. Was a probilidy is a shance ub gessin a order das dere wifoud lookin. Izza big diffrins. A odds ub id happenin izzen a same es a odds ub perdickdin id. A cards gossa same odds ub comin up in a order ub nummers es goss ub comin up enny udder kine ub order. Bein inna order ub a nummers izzen special probilidy iz juss makes people dinked iz special. Fer sample perdick a nummers beed free fibe two one siss aid nine seben four ten. Das goss a zack same shances es bein inna order ub a nummers bud peoples finked is nod. Den showed a cards onna table. Wishebber nummers iz dere was a hunnerd a sent shance affer dealin eben afore lookin bud was zackly a same es bein inna order ub nummers when shufflin. Probilidy doan cared boud order ub nummers iz juss peoples es tings iz special.